New climate plan must be alive to usual hurdles

Congratulations to the government for submitting the second revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the UNFCCC on time, in its commitment to tame the climate crisis.

The climate journey outlined in the NDC meant for 2031 to 2035 indicates how Kenya will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 35 per cent, while increasing resilience among humans, economy and nature. The resilience aspect of this plan cannot be gainsaid, considering the battering that communities, the economy and ecosystem have endured in the face of climate change.

The negative effects of climate change touch food security and public health, increasing conflict, poverty and displacement prevalence. In 2022 and 2023, for instance, Kenya, as were other parts of the Horn of Africa, endured acute food shortage following prolonged drought not experienced in 40 years, characterised by five consecutive failed rainy seasons. It caused malnutrition.

In 2024, the Kenya Red Cross Society documented 50,000 people displaced by flash floods in Nairobi, Tana River, and Kisumu counties. Several families in informal settlements spent nights in the cold, some on rooftops. In 2023, the government grappled with a maize shortage after its food baskets, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia, harvested less grain due to erratic rainfall. The ensuing price hikes affected the poor more. The government had to import maize.

Extreme weather has compromised energy production. The drought in 2022 and 2023, for instance, led to reduced hydropower production by up to 30 per cent, as water levels at Masinga and Turkwel dams went below normal. As if that was not enough, tourism suffered as several zebras and buffaloes reported by Kenya Wildlife Service as dying in Amboseli and Tsavo hit 205 in 2022. There have been incidences of water stress, especially as Mt Kenya’s glaciers are reported to lose their mass, affecting the flow of major rivers. The Mau and Lake Turkana ecosystems have equally suffered degradation due to human activity and climate change. If such problems worsen, Kenya’s ability to focus, grow, and even achieve the set NDCs will be compromised. Yet there are bigger hurdles. Kenya needs $56 billion to implement the new plan. It plans to raise 20 per cent of the budget, roughly $10.5 billion, and get the rest from such sources as climate finance. More could come through capacity building, technology transfer, and carbon markets.

It will not be a walk in the park, especially with the 80 per cent budget. The Global North has enough times reneged on its commitments to mobilise funds to aid climate action in the South, as per the Paris Agreement. A lot of semantics thrive when nations meet at the annual global climate talks, and others, to the extent that it sometimes feels as if the Global South is seeking charity.

Kenya must find innovative financing models, including public-private partnerships, while incentivising co-investment in climate-smart activities. Besides, counties must be empowered to address critical climate issues locally, since that is where communities’ resilience is tested most.

Stronger capacity-building programmes, knowledge-sharing platforms, and increased budgetary allocations to county governments are essential. Equally important is the need to engage community leaders, civil society organisations, and grassroots networks in shaping and monitoring local climate responses.

Kenya’s engagement in carbon markets has recently caused chaos in Kajiado. It is not transparent enough for all to understand the business. With inadequate oversight, cases of land grabbing, exploitative contracts that only benefit middlemen, or government, and displacement of people.

The NDC can guarantee jobs and green growth. It gives opportunity to explore home made climate solutions, which can benefit women, youth, people with disabilities, and others rendered victims rather than solution providers. Beyond financing and capacity building, political will and policies are key.