The UNFPA says it is other coercive factors making people reduce family size, not their own freewill.
Across Kenya, many young parents dream of holding two or three of their own children one day.
But they are being pushed by the harsh realities of daily life to drop such plans. Rent is high, food is expensive, and
jobs are uncertain.
A new UN report reveals that it
is not a lack of desire stopping people from starting or expanding families, it
is the cost of living.
The UNFPA’s 2025 State of World
Population report, launched in Nairobi
on Tuesday, says “this inability of individuals to realise their desired
fertility goals is the real fertility crisis” around the world.
In other words, declining birth rates in many
countries are not caused by people not wanting children, but by obstacles that
keep them from having the families they dream of.
Kenya’s population has been
growing rapidly at 2 per cent every year, with the government making efforts to
slow down the growth.
However, the UNFPA report says it is
other coercive factors making people reduce family size, not their own
freewill.
“Reproductive agency requires not
just the ability to say yes or no, not just the right to be free of coercion;
it requires a full range of conditions that enable people to exercise true
choice,” says the report, “The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive
Agency in a Changing World”.
The UNFPA report is based on
surveys of adults in 14 countries. It notes that nearly one in four people “had
experienced a time when they desired a child but felt unable to fulfill the
desire at the preferred time”.
In those cases, more than 40 per cent
eventually had to give up their hope of having a child. Even more alarmingly,
13 per cent of respondents had both an unplanned pregnancy and unwanted
infertility – meaning they had a baby they did not intend and still could not
have as many children as they wanted.
In the words of the report, these
figures show that “systems and environments are failing to support individuals’
reproductive decision-making”.
“Vast numbers of people are
unable to create the families they want,” said Dr Natalia Kanem, executive
director of UNFPA, who is currently visiting Nairobi. “The issue is lack of
choice, not desire, with major consequences for individuals and societies. That
is the real fertility crisis, and the answer lies in responding to what people
say they need: paid family leave, affordable fertility care, and supportive
partners.”
The report identifies common
barriers that derail family plans. For example, money is a huge factor: the
high cost of housing, schooling, childcare and daily life makes raising
children seem out of reach for many young people today. Even a decent job can
be hard to find or secure long term.
Climate worries, war and uncertainty also
weigh heavily on people’s minds. As one young woman in the report notes, fears
about the future – from climate change to conflict – lead many couples to say
they must have fewer children than they would otherwise prefer. In short,
factors like economic precarity, gender inequality, lack of community support
and poor health services all make it harder to start or grow a family.
The UNFPA report says: barriers
to avoiding an unintended pregnancy and barriers to starting a family are often
the same. For example, when clinics lack staff or services, or when childcare
costs are high, men and women alike find it hard to realise their family goals.
In Kenya and elsewhere in Africa,
similar fears are rising. For example, many worry about finding work and
housing. UNFPA finds that even in African countries with historically higher
birth rates, a significant share of women and men now expect fewer children
than they desire.
Kenya’s population, estimated at
around 56 million in 2024, is continuing to grow steadily at nearly two per
cent per year, adding roughly a million people annually. Projections suggest
this will reach approximately 57.8 million by 2030, and may climb to nearly 84
million by 2050, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
Meanwhile, the total fertility
rate, while gradually declining, remains around 3.2 children per woman, KNBS
says.
However, Nairobi’s cost of living
remains relatively high compared to many other African cities, including
Johannesburg and Lagos.