For years, Iran has defied international oversight, expanded its ballistic missile arsenal, and issued open threats to annihilate another UN member state — all while advancing its nuclear programme beyond declared limits.
Recent reports from the IAEA confirm what Israel and others have long warned the international community about the escalating threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran. This threat is no longer theoretical. It is substantiated by official findings, concrete violations, and explicit declarations.
Iran has now reached a critical threshold in its nuclear weapons programme, while simultaneously expanding its ballistic missile arsenal. Combined with its hostile rhetoric and global terror activities, this development constitutes a direct and immediate danger — not only to Israel, but to regional and international stability.
For years, Israel has sounded the alarm on a threat many chose to ignore, that has now reached a critical stage. The Iranian regime, propelled by apocalyptic ideology and unchecked military ambition, has moved ever closer to acquiring nuclear weapons capability. This is not a speculative concern – it is a matter of record.
On June 12, the IAEA Board of Governors stated unequivocally: “Iran has failed to cooperate fully with the Agency,” further clarifying that Tehran has been “in non-compliance with its obligations under its safeguards agreement” since 2019. In a separate report published on May 31, the Agency reported that Iran had not declared nuclear material or activities at three undisclosed sites, warning of potential “proliferation implications.” These are not just bureaucratic infractions — they are red flags for global security. Iran has crossed into the final stages of nuclear weapons development — a critical threshold where capability and intent dangerously align.
This is happening alongside Iran’s dramatic acceleration of its nuclear weapon programme. Recent assessments suggest that Iran has amassed sufficient fissile material for up to nine atomic bombs. At the same time, it has expanded its ballistic missile arsenal to an estimated 10,000–20,000 long-range missiles, capable of striking as far as parts of the European Union. The question is: Why does a country with no declared external threats need such offensive capabilities?
But capability is only part of the equation. Intent matters. Iran has made its intent painfully clear. On May 17, 2025, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated: “The Zionist regime is a lethal, dangerous, cancerous tumor that should certainly be eradicated — and it will be.” A year earlier, he vowed that “the divine promise to eliminate the Zionist entity will be fulfilled.” These are not isolated outbursts; they are part of a long-standing rhetoric that includes Holocaust denial, open antisemitism, and glorification of terrorism.
Iran’s support for terrorist organisations across the Middle East and beyond is not theory. It is fact. Just one year ago, Argentina officially concluded that Iranian operatives were behind the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires — a brutal attack that killed 29 people and injured over 200. Iran was also implicated in the 2012 Burgas bus bombing in Bulgaria, which killed six Israeli tourists. Iranian plots have been thwarted in Germany, the Netherlands, Cyprus, and Thailand, among others.
Most recently, we have seen Iran’s UAVs used in the war against Ukraine — loitering drones terrorising civilians in Kyiv. If that is what Iran exports to Europe, what might it export to the Middle East?
Iran’s destabilising activity is not confined to the Middle East. Its reach extends into Africa, where the Quds Force — Iran’s external operations arm — has been actively involved in intelligence and terror activity. Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah, have supported local organisations such as Saraya Zahra, which have been linked to plots and operational planning in countries including Cameroon, the DRC, Ghana, and Niger.
Israel’s response — carried out in coordination with our allies, including the United States — is not one of choice, but necessity. It is a defensive measure against a dual threat: a nuclearised regime with genocidal ambitions and a rapidly growing ballistic arsenal aimed at our civilian centers. Many of these rockets are already pointed at Israeli cities, and with 500kg warheads, our civil defense has limited capacity to protect against a mass attack.
This is a moment for moral clarity, and the global community must take a principled stand. Countries like Kenya, which have directly suffered from the scourge of terrorism — particularly from Al-Shabaab, a group supported ideologically and operationally by broader extremist networks — understand the devastating cost of inaction.
Iran’s deepening involvement in terror financing and its ideological alignment with radical movements pose a growing threat to African security. The Islamic Republic must be confronted not only by those directly targeted, but by all nations that value peace, human dignity, and international law.
Iran today is not only the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. It is the most dangerous case of ideology-driven proliferation the world has seen in decades. The world cannot afford to wait for “the moment after.” We certainly cannot.
-The writer is Deputy Ambassador Embassy of the State of Israel to Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Tanzania & Seychelles
By Ariel Arviv