There are political lessons Trans-Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua seem to have mastered—lessons that elude many of their peers in opposition.
Kenyan politics is a fiercely antagonistic arena, and understanding this is key to unlocking power, as both former President Uhuru Kenyatta and current President William Ruto demonstrated in their rise.
The two skillfully used their International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments to create a high-octane political atmosphere, portraying themselves as victims of international interference. This narrative galvanised support, especially from their respective communities, under the banner of patriotism and resistance against foreign meddling. It was a strategy rooted in crafting enemies and rallying supporters around common grievances.
Once in power, Ruto immediately set about identifying a new political adversary to sustain his momentum. Initially, it was Raila Odinga. But after their unexpected handshake, Ruto had to pivot—and he was ready. His arsenal included the “dynasty versus hustler” rhetoric and the “bottom-up” economic narrative, both designed to keep the political temperature high and to focus public anger on convenient targets.
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Gachagua owes his political relevance to the same strategy. He first took aim at Uhuru and now aligns himself with Ruto’s confrontational politics. Similarly, Natembeya has charted his course by openly challenging Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula and not in press conferences and TV interviews but on the ground. What distinguishes him is his unapologetic, undiplomatic stance—a deliberate move to make waves and capture attention.
This is the reality of Kenyan politics: to gain attention, you must become an alternative voice, one bold enough to rattle the establishment. Media thrives on controversy, and politicians who make noise are guaranteed space. A protagonist in politics must aim to be the protagonist, not just one among many.
Shamelessness is the hallmark of political survival. Not in the moral sense, but in willingness to fight dirty, contradict oneself without blinking, and turn every criticism into an emotional appeal. To succeed, a politician must accuse others of doing exactly what they have done and defend it with conviction.
While many Kenyans hope for more civil, issue-based politics, the shift is likely to be gradual. And gradual means change will not come dramatically nor at the first instance.
Most revolutionary leaders gunning for the top seat with a diplomatic approach would have found it easier in a transitional election—when the seat of power is open and no incumbent is defending it.
In such a setting, the race is always more open. But in the current environment, they face the uphill task of unseating a leader whose roots run deep and has more capacity to fight back.
The only way to beat an incumbent is through relentless, forceful opposition. Soft punches don’t land. As former President Kibaki once quipped, “You cannot cut down a Mugumo tree with a razor blade.” Anyone eyeing Kenya’s top seat should take note.
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By Mike Nyagwoka