US Senator James E. Risch, a high-ranking Republican who serves as chairman of the powerful US Foreign Relations Committee, has proposed a bill to kickstart the process of reviewing Washington’s designation of Kenya as a major non-NATO ally.
The conservative Republican wants the government to review the status, conferred in June 2024, as a step to reconsidering security and economic partnerships.The bill also calls for a detailed review of Kenya’s relations with the US’ adversaries China, Russia, and Iran, including the relationships of key political actors with the three countries and non state armed groups.Other issues in the proposal include Kenya’s use of US security assistance and intelligence support and whether it has been used on actions against civilians including “abductions, torture, renditions, and violence against civilians.”
Sen. Risch, who submitted the bill on August 1st, was following through on an issue he first raised in May while chairing a US Foreign Relations Committee hearing. At the hearing, titled “East Africa & The Horn: At a turning Point or Breaking Point?”, he said that the US needs to be “clear-eyed” about its partners in the region.
He pointed out multiple issues, such as the fact that the US’ role in the creation of South Sudan had only provided ‘marginal’ returns on investment. A key issue, he added, was that many African countries ‘maintain troubling ties with China.’
“Just last month, President Ruto declared that Kenya, a major non-NATO ally, and China are “co-architects of a new world order.” That’s not just alignment to China; it’s allegiance,” Sen. Risch said at the time.
“Relying on leaders who embrace Beijing so openly is an error. It’s time to reassess our relationship with Kenya and others who forge tight bonds with China.”
Why it Matters
It was always apparent that Kenya’s place in the US power matrix would be under review once President Donald Trump won the November 2024 elections. Kenya’s President William Ruto had allied himself closely with the then President Joe Biden, under whose term Ruto made a state visit to Washington, Kenya got the major non-NATO ally status, and the two created the mission to Haiti.
During his first term (2016-2020), President Trump’s administration had engaged in some meaningful engagements with Nairobi, including a potential trade deal that was unfinished by the time he lost his reelection bid. Famously insular in his view of the US’ place in the world, Trump has always projected a transactional image where he weighs the benefits of any engagements on a political ledger that gives him wins at home before anything else.
In his second term, President Trump has sought to undo as many Biden policies as possible, in addition to other measures such as imposing tariffs on every other country in the world, allies and adversaries alike. This, and Ruto’s close relationship with Biden’s Washington, created a relatively fluid, but not entirely unpredictable set of scenarios for Nairobi’s future as a US ally.
Revoking the non-major NATO ally status would not have many direct impacts on Kenya, as the designation is just a little over a year old. But it would signify a major restructuring of relations between two traditional allies with relatively different goals. Kenya is already reeling from many Trump policies including the withdrawal from the Haiti mission, the closure of USAID, and the imposition of a 10% blanket tariff.
But Kenya and US trade has never been significant enough for the relationship to be simply economic. Kenya and the US have mainly been security allies, with the former providing a staging ground for US posturing in East Africa and the Horn, including a military installation. The latter has provided not just intelligence but also military support in the fight against Al-Shabaab and other threats. It has also used aid and other forms of support to shore up its soft power in Kenya as the region’s economic powerhouse.
What Could Go Wrong?
For decades, US policymakers understood Kenya’s, and by extension its neighbours’, need to balance global geopolitics with domestic and regional considerations. This was one of the reasons behind the Non-aligned Movement (NAM), which helped many African countries navigate the Cold War, and diplomatic stances on divisive issues such as Israel’s statehood and the Morocco/Western Sahrawi issue.
In the Cold War’s aftermath and with China’s rise as an economic powerhouse, Kenya sought to continue balancing its economic needs with its security and geopolitical ones, without fully ‘turning East.’ It has been a delicate equilibrium based out of sheer pragmatism. China and Iran are, for example, some of Kenya’s major trading partners, which means that Nairobi cannot simply abandon relations with them to placate Washington.
But Sen. Risch’s bill also raises some issues where Nairobi has shot itself in the foot. Kenya’s closeness with and tacit support for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), for example, has been a thorny issue with no apparent benefits to its national goals. With the Sudanese Army back in Khartoum, Kenya has found itself on the receiving end of retaliatory measures such as a ban on its tea exports.
It has also joined in the rising scourge of state abductions and torture plaguing East Africa, including allowing its neighbours to abduct their citizens from Kenyan soil. In the span of just a few short years, Nairobi has lost its traditional role as a mostly neutral ground in the region with warring parties in the region instead choosing Doha and other capitals for negotiations.
The recent surge in abductions and crimes against civilians by the Kenyan state are a major domestic issue, and one where the US itself may be wondering whether it has been complicit. Abductions and renditions, a favourite tool by Washington on its enemies, has depended on allies such as Kenya who have been willing to break their own laws to get it done. But at the time the enemies majorly fit into the US’ focus areas such as terror and the global drug trade. Now, the Kenyan state appears to be applying the same tools against its own citizens, as domestic angst about the economy has rattled the political establishment.
It is unlikely though, that the US will change its relations with Kenya significantly. Doing so would provide Beijing with an opening it has been laying groundwork for, including expanding what’s now mostly an economic partnership into something bigger.
For Nairobi, with two years to go to a pivotal election, the geopolitical shifts Washington’s review might trigger could appear existential. But in truth, such shifts might bear what Kenya needs to reset its long-held geopolitical stances, and restore the core place of domestic priorities over global ones.
Morris Kiruga is the Editor-in-Chief of The Kenyan Wall Street.