With three matches left in Group C of the CHAN 2024 Championship, the race for the two quarter-final spots is delicately poised.
Uganda, Algeria, South Africa, and Guinea are still in contention, while Niger face a near-impossible task after a poor start. The group has delivered surprises, shocks, and tight margins and now every goal and point counts.
Uganda’s Cranes lead the group with six points and a healthy goal difference (+2), having beaten Guinea (3-0) and Niger (2-0) after an opening-day 3-0 defeat to Algeria. Their final game is against South Africa on August 18 at Mandela National Stadium, Kampala.
A draw will guarantee Uganda a place in the last eight, while a win would secure top spot. However, a loss could open the door for South Africa and Algeria to leapfrog them, depending on other results. Coach Paul Put will be wary that complacency could undo their good work.
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Algeria sits second with five points and a +5-goal difference after beating Uganda 3-0, and drawing with both South Africa (1-1) and Guinea (1-1). They are banking on the game with Niger in their final match on August 18 at Nyayo Stadium, Nairobi to seal the deal.
Given Niger’s struggles, Algeria are favorites to collect three points. A win would take them to eight points, virtually guaranteeing progression. Even a draw could be enough if South Africa fail to beat Uganda.
With four points and a +1-goal difference, South Africa has a two -step challenge, which they must first overcome Niger today (August 15). A victory would take them to seven points before a decisive final clash with Uganda.
Two wins from two matches would ensure a top-two finish. A win and a draw might also be enough, but any slip-up could see them overtaken by Algeria or Guinea. Hugo Broos’ men face the pressure of balancing attack with defensive discipline.
Guinea, also on four points but with a -1-goal difference, are in a more precarious position. Having drawn with Algeria and beaten Niger, they must now rely on other results going their way since their group matches are complete.
If South Africa lose to Niger or Uganda, and Algeria fail to beat Niger, Guinea could sneak into second place on points or goal difference. It’s a long shot, but not entirely impossible.
With no points and no goals from two matches, Niger need to win both their remaining games, against South Africa today and Algeria on August 18, while hoping for other results to align perfectly. Even then, qualification would come down to goal difference. The odds are stacked heavily against them.
Mathematically, Uganda and Algeria remain the most likely to progress. Uganda need just a point, while Algeria face the weakest team in the group. South Africa’s qualification hinges on beating Niger and avoiding defeat to Uganda. Guinea require a perfect storm of results, while Niger need nothing short of a miracle.