Bunge la Mwananchi Jeevanjee elections, which saw defeat of the seemingly favoured Joakim Simiyu by the lesser-known Lawrence Oyugi, offer a valuable case study in Kenyan politics. Simiyu, a clear frontrunner in the public eye, had an extensive media presence, featuring on numerous podcasts and social platforms.
His high visibility and popular appeal made his loss perplexing to many. However, a deeper analysis reveals a phenomenon I term the “curse of the favourite” versus the “blessing of the underdog.” This principle, applicable across various fields from business to sports, is particularly relevant to politics.
Kenya’s political history is rife with examples. The late President Daniel arap Moi’s final years saw Kalonzo Musyoka as a clear favourite, dominating opinion polls and headlines. Before him, political giants like Kenneth Matiba and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga held similar positions. It is widely believed that Moi’s 1992 victory was a result of last-minute maneuvers to fragment the opposition, who, as favourites, may have become complacent.
In contrast, Mwai Kibaki, an underdog, quietly built his network and strategy, eventually ascending to the presidency. He was fortunate that a slightly more unified government side would have seen KANU retain power.
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The Bunge la Mwananchi elections, like the wider political landscape, were heavily influenced by tribal dynamics and ground realities. While online popularity is a powerful tool, it often indicates potential rather than actual strength. The real work happens on the ground. A key first step is a SWOT analysis, with a keen focus on the “tyranny of numbers” theory and necessity of forming alliances. The fact that Oyugi’s victory was not anticipated by those who followed the online discourse highlights the disconnect between the virtual audience and real-world votes.
A common pitfall for favourites is to become complacent and ignore these realities. They may see their popularity as a sign of an inevitable victory, neglecting the fundamental work. On the other hand, underdogs operate with no illusions. They work harder, building robust, long-lasting networks.
Raila Odinga’s journey from an underdog in the 1997 elections to a clear favourite in 2007, and a formidable force thereafter, exemplifies this. His slow and steady rise was built on a foundation of political alliances and relentless campaigning. So, what should a favourite do to avoid Simiyu’s fate?
The 2027 elections are still distant, and current popularity can be a temporary illusion, especially online. The key is to take control of this illusion and transform it into a tangible political force. This requires significant investment in communication infrastructure and personnel to manage online engagement, counter opponents, and shape the narrative.
Simultaneously, real-time groundwork must be consistent. A candidate must be seen, heard, and felt on the ground, connecting with people in their communities. This cannot be a solo effort; it demands forming strategic alliances with political luminaries from diverse regions and communities. Online buzz is a great start, but the on-the-ground action wins elections.
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By Mike Nyagwoka