There are multiple ways to interpret the sense of rising insecurity. It could be an availability bias – media is likely to cover crime, thereby giving the false impression that there is crime everywhere.
Another interpretation might be that the government is getting better at recording crime (including eliciting citizens to report crimes), even though actual total crime might not be increasing. Or it could be that crime is actually on the rise.
Given the lack of up-to-date data on crimes, it is hard to gauge the most recent trends. The latest available aggregate data is from the 2024 statistical abstract, which show that total number of reported crimes to the police has increased by over 51 per cent between 2014-2023 (from 69,376 to 104,842). Of the 17 categories of crimes reported, only two (theft by servants and corruption) saw a decrease in reporting over the same period. Notably, theft is up by almost 55 per cent.
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The increase in crime not just nominal. Total crimes committed per 100,000 people increased from 150 in 2014 to 191 in 2023. Given that most of the reporting suggests that crime is up just over the last year, it is likely that the per capita number of crimes is higher than the figure reported in 2023.
It is also important to note that the reports of rising crime are not limited to urban areas, like in Nairobi’s central business district. Rural areas, too, seem to be witnessing heightened crime.
Reports of home invasions and theft of domestic animals as well as crops in the fields have become common in the countryside. Many are left feeling helpless. In many cases the public have taken matters in their own hands. Lynchings are now fairly common.
These trends are likely to get worse. On one hand, one might expect that possible economic growth and improvements in the macroeconomic environment may contribute to less crime. However, another driver of crime – especially crimes committed by young men – might be the perceived gap between their economic and social aspirations, and their means.
Rising and visible inequality has left a lot of under/unemployed young men frustrated. There are few legitimate means available that can enable one afford the sort of lives they see online. This reality, plus the culture of quick riches and flaunting of wealth modeled by many of our politicians, is a toxic mix. The idea here is not to justify the misanthropic behaviour of young men who commit crimes. Instead, it is to remind us to be aware of some of the sociological root causes.
Beyond the individual-level drivers of criminality, another likely explanation for future rises in crime is a deterioration in law enforcement. Our politicians like responding to crime with ever more draconian punishments. Yet research suggests that the best way to deter crimes to consistently increase the probability that a criminal gets caught and punished. That means effective and timely delivery of justice – from apprehension of criminals, to their prosecution, to punishment. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that policing or the judicial process are getting better. Which is to say Kenyans should be worried over rising crime.
-The writer is a professor at Georgetown University
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There are multiple ways to interpret the sense of rising insecurity. It could be an availability bias – media is likely to cover crime, thereby giving the false impression that there is crime everywhere.
Another interpretation might be that the government is getting better at recording crime (including eliciting citizens to report crimes), even though actual total crime might not be increasing. Or it could be that crime is actually on the rise.
Given the lack of up-to-date data on crimes, it is hard to gauge the most recent trends. The latest available aggregate data is from the 2024 statistical abstract, which show that total number of reported crimes to the police has increased by over 51 per cent between 2014-2023 (from 69,376 to 104,842). Of the 17 categories of crimes reported, only two (theft by servants and corruption) saw a decrease in reporting over the same period. Notably, theft is up by almost 55 per cent.
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The increase in crime not just nominal. Total crimes committed per 100,000 people increased from 150 in 2014 to 191 in 2023. Given that most of the reporting suggests that crime is up just over the last year, it is likely that the per capita number of crimes is higher than the figure reported in 2023.
It is also important to note that the reports of rising crime are not limited to urban areas, like in Nairobi’s central business district. Rural areas, too, seem to be witnessing heightened crime.
Reports of home invasions and theft of domestic animals as well as crops in the fields have become common in the countryside. Many are left feeling helpless. In many cases the public have taken matters in their own hands. Lynchings are now fairly common.
These trends are likely to get worse. On one hand, one might expect that possible economic growth and improvements in the macroeconomic environment may contribute to less crime. However, another driver of crime – especially crimes committed by young men – might be the perceived gap between their economic and social aspirations, and their means.
Rising and visible inequality has left a lot of under/unemployed young men frustrated. There are few legitimate means available that can enable one afford the sort of lives they see online. This reality, plus the culture of quick riches and flaunting of wealth modeled by many of our politicians, is a toxic mix. The idea here is not to justify the misanthropic behaviour of young men who commit crimes. Instead, it is to remind us to be aware of some of the sociological root causes.
Beyond the individual-level drivers of criminality, another likely explanation for future rises in crime is a deterioration in law enforcement. Our politicians like responding to crime with ever more draconian punishments. Yet research suggests that the best way to deter crimes to consistently increase the probability that a criminal gets caught and punished. That means effective and timely delivery of justice – from apprehension of criminals, to their prosecution, to punishment. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that policing or the judicial process are getting better. Which is to say Kenyans should be worried over rising crime.
-The writer is a professor at Georgetown University
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By Ken Opalo