1.8 million Kenyans faced acute food insecurity between July and September 2025, and a below-average October–December rain forecast could exacerbate the figure to 2.1 million by January next year, an analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) shows.
The current figure is an improvement of the food security situation due to the above-average rainfall in parts of the country during the March–May season, which supported some harvests and temporarily bolstered pasture and water availability.However, agro-pastoral and marginal agricultural zones recorded crop yields 40–70% under typical levels because of erratic rainfall timing and early cessation in many districts.The report highlights that while some highland districts saw relatively healthy cumulative harvests, coastal and lowland areas continued to experience significant production shortfalls.
Staple food prices have risen above short- and long-term averages in many counties, with reported maize price increases of up to 20% in some highland markets compared with the recent past. Elevated fuel and transport costs, reduced local production, and higher global commodity pressures are all cited as drivers pushing households toward early market dependence after failed or reduced harvests.
Terms of trade for pastoral households remain strained in several locations as livestock values lag while cereal prices remain elevated, limiting purchasing power even where markets are functioning.
The IPC also estimates for April 2025–March 2026 total roughly 741,883 children aged 6–59 months who will require treatment for acute malnutrition, with about 178,938 of those categorized as severely acutely malnourished.
An additional 109,462 pregnant and lactating women are estimated to need treatment for malnutrition. Although these caseload estimates are lower than last year’s assessment, the report explicitly links that reduction in part to a scaling-down of screening activities resulting from funding shortfalls.
Meteorological forecasts point to a likely La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, both of which historically depress Kenya’s short-rain performance. Geographically, the most acute pockets cluster in arid and semi-arid lands such as Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit and parts of Baringo show the highest proportions of their populations in Phase 3 or 4.
Garissa, Wajir and Tana River each have around 15% of their populations in the same category, while Samburu stands at 10%. Semi-arid counties are also under strain: Kitui, Baringo, Kwale, Meru and Lamu each have 10–15% of their populations at the risk of malnutrition.
A critical constraint identified in the analysis is reduced humanitarian coverage and funding. WFP-assisted food distributions reached roughly 165,000 people in the first quarter of 2025, and national and local partners scaled back outreach and safety-net disbursements.
The National Drought Management Authority’s safety-net was suspended in August 2024. The combination of fewer outreach operations, stock-outs of nutrition commodities such as ready-to-use therapeutic food, and service delivery gaps in hard-to-reach areas has left detection and treatment systems weakened precisely as seasonal risk factors intensify.
Without an immediate replenishment of nutrition supplies, the projections are likely to materialize. IPC cautions that unless food prices ease, aid pipelines are restored, and the short rains defy forecasts, Kenya risks sliding back into a wider hunger crisis by early 2026.