In early 2013, Kenya stood at a political crossroads. President Mwai Kibaki’s days in State House were numbered, and succession talk consumed the country. Unlike Moi in 2002, Kibaki had not publicly anointed a successor.
Amid that uncertainty, then Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, leader of TNA, shocked the country when he agreed to shelve his presidential ambitions in favour of Musalia Mudavadi of the UDF. The pact, quietly brokered by powerful State House insiders, was to protect certain interests.
At the time, Uhuru was facing immense personal pressure. The ICC case hung heavily over him. Among power brokers, it was framed as though he was guilty until proven otherwise, and some feared that having an ICC suspect as president would damage Kenya’s international standing.
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His supporters were livid. MPs read him the riot act, insisting he must run. One MP even warned that if Uhuru was denied the Jubilee ticket, “all roads would lead to Bondo.” The backlash was so fierce that Uhuru reversed course, denouncing the deal in his famous ‘madimoni speech’, saying he did not know what demons possessed him to sign it. He went on to contest, win, and lead Kenya.
But what if Uhuru had been successfully negotiated out? Would his supporters have turned up to vote? Would Kenya have witnessed voter apathy or even a quiet boycott? These questions speak directly to the heart of today’s debate on negotiated democracy. More than a decade later, negotiated democracy has returned, now cloaked in the language of peace and unity.
Every election season seems to produce one by-election that captures national attention. In 2021, it was Kiambaa. In 2025, it is Mbeere North. In Mbeere North, what began as an ordinary by-election has turned into a managed political script. Behind the scenes, some aspirants were quietly persuaded or pressured to step down in favour of the “chosen ones.” Others saw their tickets abruptly withdrawn.
Proponents argue that it promotes peace and avoids costly campaigns and increases chances of a certain coalition winning. Yet these arguments conceal a deeper problem. When party leaders or state operatives decide who should contest, citizens are stripped of the right guaranteed under Article 38 of the Constitution: the right to freely make political choices.
Negotiated democracy narrows political space. It locks out new entrants, it entrenches elite control, turning elections into rituals of endorsement rather than exercises of choice. It also provides fertile ground for the abuse of state power. In Mbeere North, the ruling coalition’s candidate has benefited from government-linked activities that blur the line between state service and campaign strategy.
Those negotiated out are not taking it lightly. Within the opposition, one candidate has taken his party to court, while another denounced his (now former) party as a private club.
According to Afrobarometer, 74 per cent of Kenyans believe democracy is preferable to any other system. About 77 per cent say open and honest elections are the best way to choose leaders, and over 80 per cent reject one-party rule. These numbers show that Kenyans value competition and accountability.
Negotiated democracy may bring short-term calm, but it risks long-term decay. Voter turnout in the 2022 elections fell sharply, with millions staying home. If 2027 candidates are chosen through closed-door consensus rather than open contest, voter apathy will deepen.
Assuming a coalition has ten parties and wishes to agree on one flagbearer, what form of competition should exist among them to preserve legitimacy? Shouldn’t voters be allowed to evaluate those ten candidates through transparent primaries rather than be presented with a single preselected name?
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By Wanja Maina