The swelling of Rift Valley lakes has been in the news for two years now, presenting different aspects, especially of what it has denied communities. And now it is snatching democracy from the hands of those already battered by effects of this same phenomenon, and climate change.
The lakes are displacing thousands, and rendering property worth millions of shillings useless. The number of households displaced as a result of the swelling of lakes on the floor of the Rift Valley is now estimated at 75,987 in 2025 alone.
Reports have it that Lake Naivasha has advanced inland by some 1.5km, forcing out communities that have lived in specific areas for ages, besides destroying property and people’s sources of livelihood.
When this last week people went out to vote in the by-elections, Baringo was struggling to find an alternative for at least eight gazetted polling centres, which also happen to be schools, that had been submerged. The electorate form part of the households displaced when the lakes started swelling. What would motivate such a person to go vote?
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The now clear phenomenon in the Rift Valley lakes has been attributed to many causes, including tectonic or geological dynamics, land use changes, heavy rains, and even siltation. The bigger question must be how do communities adapt to unending conditions that have disrupted farming, tourism and business?
The problem has extended to institutions, including Wildlife Research and Training Institute. This may mean that crucial work such as rehabilitation of critically injured animals, or ecologically important studies are suspended.
Wildlife that roamed the affected areas have disappeared because their grazing areas are under water. The previously beneficial works around fish hatcheries are no longer there after they were swept away in the floods.
Yet this is not only an environmental problem. When this kind of phenomenon denies one a right to vote, it interferes with their right to choose who governs them, which may go deeper to what kind of services they can access. It highly contributes to loss of public trust, including on the electoral processes and the institutions. Election illegitimacy is seed for doubt and discord, and a possible hindrance to service delivery for those who make it to the political seats.
Baringo may just be one county affected by such, but also serves as a warning and clear indication of what the continent must prepare for. Already the floods have messed up with education, with learners expected to either struggle to access learning or find newer institutions, which comes with much more expenses for an already financially battered populace. Other schools may act as camps for the internally displaced.
Health centres are marooned, denying many access to basic medicine and those whose dispensation requires discreetness, because of the stigma surrounding them.
Action must therefore include maximising resilient infrastructure and making the best out of available technology for early warning systems and media to spread information, and aid disaster preparedness.
Since there is no end in sight for the lakes’ swelling, relocation of victims must be done humanely and justly. These same victims invent nature-based solutions to these problems. These efforts, albeit inadequate, are likely to create jobs, including opportunity to strengthen capacity as a means of increasing resilience.
These efforts could also include ecosystem restoration. The IPCC has in its reports released as late as last year, predicted more intense and frequent disasters. The Rift Valley case is peculiar because there are multiple causes. It demands international support.
-The writer is a contributing editor at Mongabay.
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By Lynet Otieno