US President Donald Trump, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame and DRC’s Felix Tshisekedi sign the Washington Accords for Peace between Rwanda and the DRC at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC. [PCS]
Last week saw the eventual signing of the peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. The occasion was witnessed by among others US President Donald Trump, President William Ruto, President Évariste Ndayishimiye of Burundi, Faure Gnassingbé of Togo and Angola’s João Lourenço.
Close observers know we have been here many times over. Countless peace deals have been negotiated, agreed, signed and predictably broken.
Has the DRC finally cut the ribbon towards lasting peace in the East? Only time will tell.
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But what is in it for Rwanda in this peace deal?
While DRC stands to reap huge peace dividends in the event of sustainable peace, perhaps it is the neighbouring Rwanda that stands to benefit the most economically. A stable DRC provides a ready market for Rwandan goods and labour.
Rwanda has over the last few decades pursued ambitious economic reforms aimed at creating prosperity for its people. The economy has been one of the fastest growing in the region and globally at about eight per cent annually. The World Bank Ease of Doing Business survey has consistently ranked Rwanda as one of the top performers in Africa across the years.
Even with all things going right internally, one big hindrance stands on its way of Rwanda becoming a major economic player in the region, the low population. With just over 14 million people, Rwanda trails regional competitors Tanzania with a population of 69 million, Kenya’s 53 million, and Uganda at 49 million. While the business and political fundamentals may be right, the local market is too small to attract big international manufacturers and other investors. Poor logistical connections across East Africa also make it hard for investors to manufacture in Rwanda and sell regionally.
Large businesses interests can survive poor governance, even some level of instability. But they cannot survive a market too small to allow competitiveness. Global brands will still pick countries with higher population including Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya or Ethiopia for their regional presence at the expense of Rwanda.
A peaceful large market potentially availed by a peaceful Eastern DRC region provides the relief Rwanda needs. While Rwanda may find it hard to fully penetrate the East African market, the large population in Congo would unlock the potential.
Rwanda is currently constructing an eight million annual passenger capacity airport at Bugesera at a cost of USD 2 billion and pursuing standard gauge railway connection with Dar es Salaam. The viability of these two huge infrastructural undertakings stand to gain immensely from trade links with the DRC and make Rwanda a regional trading and logistical hub in East and Central Africa.
Politically, Rwanda sees the instability in the Eastern DRC as an overflow of the ethnic conflict that led the birth of the current government shortly after the genocide in the early 1990s. The major rebel group, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) is known to operate from Congo. Some observers see Rwanda’s hand in the activities of M23 to counter FDLR influence. Rwanda blames DRC government of lending a hand to the FDLR. Whichever way we look at it, the prosperous future Rwanda is trying to build is so intricately tied to the peace in the Eastern Congo.
As the ink dries ever so slowly on the peace deal, all eyes are on Rwanda not just as one of the parties to the conflict but also as a potential beneficiary of a stable Eastern DRC. Will economic interests deliver peace where political and military interventions failed so many times in so many ways?
Kibathi is an economist and commentator on social and political affairs
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By Mwangi Kibathi