Raila Odinga’s death inevitably put Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) on a path trodden by once powerful political parties, which became irrelevant and ceased to exist after their leaders died. The parties’ undoing was that they were built around personalities.
The Kenya African Democratic Union (Kadu) party under Ronald Ngala gradually disappeared following Ngala’s death in 1972. By then, Kadu had been weakened through encroachment by the Kenya African National Union (Kanu).
Like Kadu, ODM has also been weakened by the time of Raila’s death. The surprise 2024 working agreement with the United Democratic Alliance that birthed the broad-based government took the steam out of it.
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Across the border, the once powerful Uganda People’s Congress withered after party leader Milton Obote died in 2005. Further South, the Zimbabwe African Peoples Union (Zapu) died soon after the death of party leader Joshua Nkomo in 1999. Before Nkomo’s death, the Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front party had already overwhelmed Zapu.
ODM faces a similar fate with growing internal factionalism following Raila’s death. Notwithstanding the facade of an institutionalised party, ODM was majorly built around the person of Raila. And despite the bravado being displayed by its excitable leaders and perfunctory assurances that it will survive, ODM is not built in the mold of institutionalised parties like the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, Democratic Party in the US and the Labour Party in Britain. Nelson Mandela’s charisma, appeal and towering personality could not overshadow ANC.
There are pointers to ODM being in a coma, but not yet brain-dead. That brain is the Young Turks who are determined to keep the party alive after opportunists, hangers-on and the feckless Old Guard showed signs of giving up, either from fatigue, or selfishness, which have nothing to do with ODMs overall health.
On several occasions, even before Raila’s burial, some ODM leaders claimed there were party moles trying to wreck ODM but stopped at naming them. Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir recently took up the refrain, claiming there are ticks sucking blood out of ODM and also that Raila “did not die for ODM to remain in the opposition”.
Nassir should be reminded that political parties are formed expressly to grab power through constitutional means, not to share power except in extreme situations like the hung Parliament in Britain and the Israeli conundrum where governments are formed not based on politics alone, but around national security considerations. This is made necessary by competing secular, religious, liberal, Arab, Jewish and nationalist interests that ensure not a single party can win 61 seats of the Knesset’s (Parliament) 120 elective seats.
To grab power, therefore, ODM must get out of UDA’s embrace and reclaim its independence. Interestingly, Oburu Odinga says ODM’s agreement with UDA doesn’t go beyond 2027, yet cryptically says ODM will be in government in 2027. Is it as a junior partner, or a party that will merely shore up UDA numbers in Parliament? Or will it form the government?
Kenya, unlike Britain, cannot have a hung Parliament to guarantee ODM a place at the governance table. While in Britain a party needs more than half the elective seats to form government, all a president needs in Kenya is 50 + 1 votes.
The president doesn’t need more than half the MPs to form a Cabinet. The Constitution gives him power to appoint technocrats. He doesn’t even have to worry about Parliament, because what we have there are mercenaries.
ODM, the greatest equaliser we’ve ever had, must not die. Those who claim there are ticks and spoilers within should expose them before the gangrene that is eating up the party gets to its vital organs, or stop regaling Kenyans with baseless speculation grounded in fantasy, and guided by protectionist inclinations.
Oburu is obviously not endowed with Raila’s oomph to effectively hold ODM together. Indeed, Winnie Odinga has indirectly challenged and questioned his leadership style. Ruth Odinga has even offered herself for the presidency on ODM’s ticket after seeing Oburu’s seeming indecisiveness as a party leader.
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By Alexander Chagema