ODM leader Oburu Oginga addresses a rally at Kamukunji grounds, Kibera, Nairobi, on January 14, 2026. [Kanyiri Wahito, Standard]
As Kenya inches steadily toward the 2027 General Election, the contrasting political strategies of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) cannot be starker. President William Ruto, as the UDA party leader, is firmly focused on consolidating his party’s grassroots structures through elections and organisational renewal. ODM, on the other hand, appears trapped in a cycle of internal squabbles that risk diminishing its relevance, both within the current ODM–UDA broad-based framework and in the broader national political arena.
Dr Ruto’s approach is deliberate and methodical. By rolling out grassroots elections, UDA is entrenching itself at the ward, constituency, and county levels. This is not merely administrative housekeeping; it is a calculated investment in political longevity. Strong party structures translate to discipline, mobilisation capacity, and bargaining power, qualities that matter immensely in coalition politics. UDA, it appears, not only wants to win the 2027 elections but also to dominate the post-2027 political landscape.
ODM’s posture within this same period tells a very different story. Instead of strengthening its internal systems, broadening its ideological appeal, or reorganising its grassroots networks, the party is consumed by succession anxieties. Public discourse from ODM ranks increasingly revolves around who should be Ruto’s running mate in 2027, who should be positioning themselves for 2032 presidency, who “holds the key to State House,” and, inevitably, who qualifies to be the Luo, Luhya or coastal kingpin. These debates may be inevitable in a mature democracy, but their timing and intensity are politically costly for the ODM party.
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The result is a party that looks distracted and reactive. While UDA is building, ODM is engaged in not so healthy debates. While UDA is expanding its base, ODM is preoccupied with elite calculations. In coalition politics, perception matters as much as numbers. A party seen as internally divided and future-obsessed loses leverage at the negotiating table. Its value as a coalition partner declines, not because it lacks history or support, but because it appears unsure of its present direction.
This persistent erosion of ODM’s political value is already manifesting on the ground. ODM’s Deputy Party Leader Senator Godfrey Osotsi’s recent press statement warning that UDA is “cannibalising” ODM in the former Western Province should be read less as an accusation and more as a symptom.
Political cannibalisation rarely happens in a vacuum; it thrives where organisational gaps exist. As ODM leadership quarrels over national succession narratives, UDA operatives are busy recruiting, organising, and branding themselves as the party of power and opportunity across the country. Voters, especially at the grassroots, tend to gravitate toward parties that look united, purposeful, and close to the centre of power.
The irony is that ODM has historically been strongest when it projected clarity of purpose and internal cohesion. Its demonstration of decline in bargaining power today is not inevitable; it is self-inflicted. Cooperation with UDA could have been an opportunity for ODM to re-tool, modernise its structures, and redefine its ideological contribution to governance. Instead, the party risks being reduced to a junior partner whose main utility is symbolic rather than strategic.
As 2027 approaches, ODM faces a stark choice. It can continue down the path of internal rivalry and premature succession battles, thereby accelerating its marginalisation. Or it can pause, regroup, and invest in rebuilding its grassroots machinery with the same seriousness that UDA is displaying.
Coalitions reward strength, not nostalgia. In the current ODM–UDA equation, one party is acting like a builder of the future, while the other is arguing over who will inherit it.
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ODM leader Oburu Oginga addresses a rally at Kamukunji grounds, Kibera, Nairobi, on January 14, 2026.
[Kanyiri Wahito, Standard]
As Kenya inches steadily toward the 2027 General Election, the contrasting political strategies of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) cannot be starker. President William Ruto, as the UDA party leader, is firmly focused on consolidating his party’s grassroots structures through elections and organisational renewal. ODM, on the other hand, appears trapped in a cycle of internal squabbles that risk diminishing its relevance, both within the current ODM–UDA broad-based framework and in the broader national political arena.
Dr Ruto’s approach is deliberate and methodical. By rolling out grassroots elections, UDA is entrenching itself at the ward, constituency, and county levels. This is not merely administrative housekeeping; it is a calculated investment in political longevity. Strong party structures translate to discipline, mobilisation capacity, and bargaining power, qualities that matter immensely in coalition politics. UDA, it appears, not only wants to win the 2027 elections but also to dominate the post-2027 political landscape.
ODM’s posture within this same period tells a very different story. Instead of strengthening its internal systems, broadening its ideological appeal, or reorganising its grassroots networks, the party is consumed by succession anxieties. Public discourse from ODM ranks increasingly revolves around who should be Ruto’s running mate in 2027, who should be positioning themselves for 2032 presidency, who “holds the key to State House,” and, inevitably, who qualifies to be the Luo, Luhya or coastal kingpin. These debates may be inevitable in a mature democracy, but their timing and intensity are politically costly for the ODM party.
Follow The Standard
channel
on WhatsApp
The result is a party that looks distracted and reactive. While UDA is building, ODM is engaged in not so healthy debates. While UDA is expanding its base, ODM is preoccupied with elite calculations. In coalition politics, perception matters as much as numbers. A party seen as internally divided and future-obsessed loses leverage at the negotiating table. Its value as a coalition partner declines, not because it lacks history or support, but because it appears unsure of its present direction.
This persistent erosion of ODM’s political value is already manifesting on the ground. ODM’s Deputy Party Leader Senator Godfrey Osotsi’s recent press statement warning that UDA is “cannibalising” ODM in the former Western Province should be read less as an accusation and more as a symptom.
Political cannibalisation rarely happens in a vacuum; it thrives where organisational gaps exist. As ODM leadership quarrels over national succession narratives, UDA operatives are busy recruiting, organising, and branding themselves as the party of power and opportunity across the country. Voters, especially at the grassroots, tend to gravitate toward parties that look united, purposeful, and close to the centre of power.
The irony is that ODM has historically been strongest when it projected clarity of purpose and internal cohesion. Its demonstration of decline in bargaining power today is not inevitable; it is self-inflicted. Cooperation with UDA could have been an opportunity for ODM to re-tool, modernise its structures, and redefine its ideological contribution to governance. Instead, the party risks being reduced to a junior partner whose main utility is symbolic rather than strategic.
As 2027 approaches, ODM faces a stark choice. It can continue down the path of internal rivalry and premature succession battles, thereby accelerating its marginalisation. Or it can pause, regroup, and invest in rebuilding its grassroots machinery with the same seriousness that UDA is displaying.
Coalitions reward strength, not nostalgia. In the current ODM–UDA equation, one party is acting like a builder of the future, while the other is arguing over who will inherit it.
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By Elijah Ambasa