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Kenya needs about 260,000 new housing units annually, yet it only delivers fewer than 60,000 formal homes, widening a deficit that now stands at more than two million units, according to the data and industry analyses.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data, including population growth, urbanisation trends and construction output published in its Economic Survey and Real Estate Survey Report, shows that housing demand continues to outpace supply, driven by rapid urbanisation and changing household needs.
Kenya’s population surpassed 52 million by the end of last year, while urbanisation is growing at about four to 4.5 per cent annually, one of the fastest rates in Africa. Most of this growth is concentrated in cities and peri-urban zones, intensifying housing pressure in Nairobi and surrounding counties such as Kiambu, Kajiado, Machakos and Murang’a.
While State initiatives such as the Affordable Housing Programme have added new stock, public sector delivery remains modest relative to demand. According to data from the State Department for Housing and Urban Development, the number of government-built affordable housing units completed in 2024 declined compared to the previous year, highlighting the challenge of meeting ambitious annual targets.
As a result, much of Kenya’s new housing supply continues to be driven by private developers, particularly in the middle-income segment, where projects are more commercially viable.
Recent investments reflect sustained confidence in demand around Nairobi’s expanding commuter belt.
Last month, Superior Homes Kenya broke ground on The Orchards at Northlands, a Sh3 billion residential development in Ruiru, Kiambu County.
Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony, Superior Homes Managing Director Ian Henderson said the project was guided by real demand rather than speculation.
“The demand for quality housing around Nairobi remains strong. This project reflects our confidence in the market and our focus on delivering developments that are well-planned and built for long-term value,” he said.
Henderson added that developers are increasingly responding to buyers who are more discerning about planning standards, infrastructure and long-term sustainability.
“Homebuyers today are looking beyond the house itself. They want reliable infrastructure, secure environments and communities that will retain value over time. That is shaping how we design and deliver our projects,” he said.
The 25-acre project will comprise 130 units, including three four and five-bedroom townhouses and villas, and reflects a growing shift toward master-planned residential estates offering integrated infrastructure, security and shared amenities. Urban development analysts say such projects help address weaknesses in Kenya’s urban growth, where housing has often expanded faster than supporting infrastructure.
Improved transport networks have played a key role in shaping where new housing supply is emerging. Major road projects such as the Thika Superhighway, Eastern Bypass and Northern Corridor upgrades have reduced commuting times and unlocked large tracts of land for residential development.
Ruiru and the wider Kiambu corridor have emerged as major growth nodes, offering relatively affordable land compared to Nairobi’s inner suburbs while remaining within reach of major employment centres.
According to a Nyeri-based real estate expert, George Ndumia of Famyard Enterprise Ltd, buyers are increasingly prioritising infrastructure certainty, planning quality and long-term value preservation over simple proximity to the city centre.
“The infrastructure upgrades have fundamentally altered Nyeri’s land market dynamics. Areas that for decades suffered from poor access, low land values, and limited economic activity are now firmly on the radar of buyers and investors,” he said. Despite broader economic pressures, Kenya’s real estate sector has shown resilience.
Data from the Hass Property Index indicates that residential property prices recorded modest year-on-year growth through 2024, while rental values increased as more households opted to rent amid tighter credit conditions.
KNBS and Treasury data show that the real estate and construction sector contributes between eight and nine per cent of Kenya’s GDP, making it a key driver of employment and investment.
However, affordability remains a major constraint. Data from the Central Bank of Kenya shows average mortgage interest rates oscillating between 14 and 15 per cent, with the average mortgage size estimated at Sh9 million.
According to Cytonn Investments, urban homeownership rates remain below 30 percent, reflecting the difficulty many households face in accessing long-term housing finance.
As a result, the majority of urban residents continue to rely on rental housing, intensifying pressure on rents in well-located neighbourhoods.
Lower-income housing remains particularly underserved. Industry estimates suggest that only a small fraction of formal housing supply targets low-income earners, largely due to high land prices, construction costs and limited access to affordable financing.
Real estate experts caution that private developers alone cannot fully bridge Kenya’s housing deficit, especially in the affordable housing segment. However, they play a critical role in expanding overall supply, easing market pressure and setting benchmarks for planning and construction standards.
Analysts argue that narrowing the housing gap will require a combination of policy incentives, infrastructure investment, innovative financing models and public-private partnerships.
“For now, projects like The Orchards at Northlands illustrate both the growing role of private developers in shaping Kenya’s urban housing landscape and the scale of investment required to respond to demand that continues to outpace supply,” Ian Henderson said.
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Kenya needs about 260,000 new housing units annually, yet it only delivers fewer than 60,000 formal homes, widening a deficit that now stands at more than two million units, according to the data and industry analyses.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
data, including population growth, urbanisation trends and construction output published in its Economic Survey and Real Estate Survey Report, shows that housing demand continues to outpace supply, driven by rapid urbanisation and changing household needs.
Kenya’s population surpassed 52 million by the end of last year, while urbanisation is growing at about four to 4.5 per cent annually, one of the fastest rates in Africa. Most of this growth is concentrated in cities and peri-urban zones, intensifying housing pressure in Nairobi and surrounding counties such as Kiambu, Kajiado, Machakos and Murang’a.
While State initiatives such as the Affordable Housing Programme have added new stock, public sector delivery remains modest relative to demand. According to data from the State Department for Housing and Urban Development, the number of government-built affordable housing units completed in 2024 declined compared to the previous year, highlighting the challenge of meeting ambitious annual targets.
As a result, much of Kenya’s new housing supply continues to be driven by private developers, particularly in the middle-income segment, where projects are more commercially viable.
Recent investments reflect sustained confidence in demand around Nairobi’s expanding commuter belt.
Last month, Superior Homes Kenya broke ground on The Orchards at Northlands, a Sh3 billion residential development in Ruiru, Kiambu County.
Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony, Superior Homes Managing Director Ian Henderson said the project was guided by real demand rather than speculation.
“The demand for quality housing around Nairobi remains strong.
This project reflects our confidence
in the market and our focus on delivering developments that are well-planned and built for long-term value,” he said.
Henderson added that developers are increasingly responding to buyers who are more discerning about planning standards, infrastructure and long-term sustainability.
“Homebuyers today are looking beyond the house itself. They want reliable infrastructure, secure environments and communities that will retain value over time. That is shaping how we design and deliver our projects,” he said.
The 25-acre project will comprise 130 units, including three four and five-bedroom townhouses and villas, and reflects a growing shift toward master-planned residential estates offering integrated infrastructure, security and shared amenities. Urban development analysts say such projects help address weaknesses in Kenya’s urban growth, where housing has often expanded faster than supporting infrastructure.
Improved transport networks have played a key role in shaping where new housing supply is emerging. Major road projects such as the Thika Superhighway, Eastern Bypass and Northern Corridor upgrades have reduced commuting times and unlocked large tracts of land for residential development.
Ruiru and the wider Kiambu corridor have emerged as major growth nodes, offering relatively affordable land compared to Nairobi’s inner suburbs while remaining within reach of major employment centres.
According to a Nyeri-based real estate expert, George Ndumia of Famyard Enterprise Ltd, buyers are increasingly prioritising infrastructure certainty, planning quality and long-term value preservation over simple proximity to the city centre.
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“The infrastructure upgrades have fundamentally altered Nyeri’s land market dynamics. Areas that for decades suffered from poor access, low land values, and limited economic activity are now firmly on the radar of buyers and investors,” he said. Despite broader economic pressures, Kenya’s real estate sector has shown resilience.
Data from the Hass Property Index indicates that residential property prices recorded modest year-on-year growth through 2024, while rental values increased as more households opted to rent amid tighter credit conditions.
KNBS and Treasury data show that the real estate and construction sector contributes between eight and nine per cent of Kenya’s GDP, making it a key driver of employment and investment.
However, affordability remains a major constraint. Data from the Central Bank of Kenya shows average mortgage interest rates oscillating between 14 and 15 per cent, with the average mortgage size estimated at Sh9 million.
According to Cytonn Investments, urban homeownership rates remain below 30 percent, reflecting the difficulty many households face in accessing long-term housing finance.
As a result, the majority of urban residents continue to rely on rental housing, intensifying pressure on rents in well-located neighbourhoods.
Lower-income housing remains particularly underserved. Industry estimates suggest that only a small fraction of formal housing supply targets low-income earners, largely due to high land prices, construction costs and limited access to affordable financing.
Real estate experts caution that private developers alone cannot fully bridge Kenya’s housing deficit, especially in the affordable housing segment. However, they play a critical role in expanding overall supply, easing market pressure and setting benchmarks for planning and construction standards.
Analysts argue that narrowing the housing gap will require a combination of policy incentives, infrastructure investment, innovative financing models and public-private partnerships.
“For now, projects like The Orchards at Northlands illustrate both the growing role of private developers in shaping Kenya’s urban housing landscape and the scale of investment required to respond to demand that continues to outpace supply,” Ian Henderson said.
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By Amos Kiarie