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The Opposition must urgently craft a working formula to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 1997 General Election when fragmentation among opposition leaders handed victory to Daniel Arap Moi despite the majority of voters favouring change.
During that year, Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga, Michael Kijana Wamalwa, and Charity Ngilu all ran separately, splitting the vote and allowing Moi to easily win with only about 40.4 percent support, even though the combined opposition vote exceeded 57.7 percent. The political lesson picked here is crystal clear: Unite to win, divide and be defeated.
Today, ODM and other opposition parties face similar risks with internal wrangles and competing ambitions threatening to weaken their collective strength. Edwin Sifuna’s battles within ODM mirror Raila’s 1995 fallout in FORD-Kenya, where leadership wrangles with Kijana Wamalwa weakened the party and alienated key voting blocs, particularly in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, whose mistrust of Raila persisted for decades.
Meanwhile, other opposition figures like Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Rigathi Gachagua, Fred Matiang’i, and regional kingpins are pursuing separate strategies, often competing rather than complementing each other, and if these leaders fail to craft a common front, President Ruto will exploit the divisions just as Moi did in 1997.
To succeed, the Opposition must unite behind a single candidate, balance regional interests, articulate a clear people‑centric agenda, and enforce discipline within its ranks.
Kenya’s politics is deeply regional, and a winning coalition must reflect the diversity of the country, bringing together Nyanza, Eastern, Central, Western, and Coastal constituencies under one umbrella. Failure to balance regional interests risks alienating key blocs, as Raila’s fallout with some voters in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia demonstrated.
Unity must go beyond personalities, because Kenyans are increasingly demanding substance over symbolism, and the opposition must articulate a people‑centric agenda that resonates with ordinary citizens by addressing unemployment, the rising cost of living, corruption, and education.
Grassroots energy
A shared vision can bind diverse parties together and inspire organic supporters who amplify the message with sincerity and grassroots energy. Parties must also strengthen internal democracy and discipline because leadership wrangles, like those that plagued FORD-Kenya in 1995 and ODM today, erode credibility and weaken trust among the supporters.
A coalition must establish clear rules of engagement, conflict resolution mechanisms, and respect for collective decisions, ensuring that disagreements do not spill into public spectacles that damage the movement’s image.
The stakes are high because Kenya’s opposition cannot afford a repeat of 1997, where fragmentation easily handed victory to the incumbent despite majority support for change. If the opposition fails to unite, UDA will continue to dominate, leaving citizens disillusioned and reinforcing the perception that elections cannot deliver meaningful transformation.
History is a stern teacher, and the 1997 general elections showed that a divided opposition is doomed. Today’s leaders must learn from that lesson because by forging a working formula anchored in unity, regional balance, clear policy, and discipline, the opposition can avoid repeating past mistakes.
The choice is stark: Either unite and win, or remain divided and hand victory to the UDA. The opposition leaders seek assurance from an American, John Dickson, who, in his Liberty song of 1768, out of increasing pressure from Britain’s new taxes and controls, such as the Stamp Act of 1765 and Townshend Duties of 1767, asked Americans to remain united and join hand in hand.
He reminded them that by uniting, they stood a chance; any division meant their failure. True to his words, on July 4, 1776, America was declared independent.
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By Elphas Wanda