Kenya could attract significant private
investment in avocado, mango, medical manufacturing, and coastal tourism over the next five years if policymakers quickly remove existing
constraints.
This is the outlook by the World Bank as contained
in the latest Country Private Sector Diagnostic (CPSD) 2.0.
It takes an investor’s perspective in
identifying sectors where relatively targeted public-policy changes could
unlock private capital.
Unlike a broad assessment of the entire
economy, the diagnostic deliberately narrows its focus to sectors with the
potential to generate investment, jobs and wider economic activity.
According to the survey, the two fruit value
chains offer perhaps the clearest opportunity to turn Kenya’s agricultural
strength into higher-value exports.
Agriculture remains one of the country’s
largest economic activities, but much of its potential is still concentrated at
the production rather than processing stage.
“Investment in aggregation, cold storage,
processing, packaging, logistics and export infrastructure could allow farmers
and companies to capture more value beyond the farm gate,’’ the bank says.
Official data already shows the scale of the
opportunity.
Kenya’s avocado exports were worth about Sh19
billion in 2023, according to the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA), with
export volumes reaching 114,073 tonnes.
Mango exports, by comparison, stood at 9,548
tonnes worth Sh1.46 billion.
More recent World Bank trade data shows Kenya exported
129.7 million kilogrammes of avocados worth about $160.8 million in 2024.
The Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates,
Spain, France and Germany were among the leading destinations.
The lender says that the challenge is to
convert this growth into a deeper value chain through processing and stronger
links between smallholder farmers and investors.
The broader horticultural export market is
also expanding.
KNBS data shows fresh fruit exports increased
from 117,300 tonnes worth Sh18.4 billion in 2021 to 225,400 tonnes worth Sh41
billion in 2024.
In earlier Kenya private-sector diagnostics,
the bank similarly identified avocado and mango alongside other agribusiness
value chains as areas where processing, smallholder linkages and export
promotion could create investment opportunities.
The second major opportunity lies in
health-product manufacturing, where Kenya is attempting to reduce its
dependence on imported medicines and medical supplies.
The World Bank and Ministry of Health have
already been examining how private capital can be attracted into domestic
medical-consumables production.
Their discussions have focused on procurement,
regulatory processes and market access, three areas that directly affect
whether manufacturers can scale.
The opportunity extends beyond Kenya’s
domestic market.
The World Bank’s Africa Initiative for Medical
Access and Manufacturing, AIM2030, includes Kenya among countries targeted for
expanded medical manufacturing capacity.
The initiative aims to mobilise private investment,
strengthen regulatory systems, develop skills and build regional supply chains.
“Successful execution could create a
manufacturing ecosystem spanning pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, medical devices,
packaging, laboratories and logistics while providing a platform for exports
into the wider African market.”
Tourism is the fourth opportunity,
particularly along the Indian Ocean coast, where the diagnostic sees room for
private investment to deepen and diversify the tourism offering.
The sector is already recovering strongly,
with state data showing accommodation and food services expanded by 15.6 per
cent in 2025.
International arrivals through JKIA and Moi
International Airport increased 6.1 per cent to 1.96 million, while hotel bed
nights also rose to 11.56 million.
Coastal tourism is increasingly moving beyond
the traditional beach-hotel model.
“Cruise tourism, marine activities, cultural
tourism, eco-tourism and higher-value hospitality offer opportunities to
increase visitor spending and spread economic benefits to coastal communities.”
Kenya’s cruise industry recorded 140 per cent
growth by the end of 2025, according to the Kenya Tourism Board.
Mombasa is emerging as a turnaround port after
a cruise vessel began offering longer stays involving passenger disembarkation
and embarkation.
The World Bank says the selection followed
quantitative and qualitative analysis, consultations with investors and
companies, and interviews with policymakers, technical experts and development
partners.
The approach reflects a shift in the World
Bank’s newer CPSD 2.0 methodology, which is designed to identify practical
policy measures that can be implemented in the near term rather than producing
a long list of broad reforms.
The global lender says the new diagnostics put
greater emphasis on concrete, actionable interventions capable of catalysing
private investment and employment.
The four opportunities, however, come with a
common message: identifying investment potential is easier than converting it
into actual capital.
The diagnostic’s investor-focused approach
places the burden on public policy to address constraints that raise business
costs, delay approvals, restrict market access or increase uncertainty.
That means better infrastructure and
logistics, predictable regulation, efficient licensing and standards, access to
finance and stronger links between producers and markets.
The stakes are broader than attracting
individual projects.
The World Bank says CPSDs are intended to
identify sectors capable of generating jobs, domestic revenue and sustainable,
inclusive growth.