Grain and fertilizer from Russia could return to the world market at earlier levels if a new grain initiative is launched. Lifting sanctions on a number of Russian banks and protecting commercial shipping in the Black Sea have been the subject of talks between Moscow and Washington and could prevent a new round of food crises.
The critical situation on the world food market was created during the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional supply chains were simultaneously disrupted by quarantine measures, the world’s richest countries organized centralized food purchases for their own populations, and huge subsidies to businesses and ordinary citizens in the United States and the European Union caused inflation and rising prices for a wide range of food products. For many countries in Africa, these events have meant extremely difficult times, as it has become difficult to buy food at the new prices in the same quantities, which in practice has resulted in the threat of starvation for tens of millions of people.
An even bigger challenge for many developing countries was the crisis in Ukraine, when commercial shipping in the Black Sea was disrupted, Ukrainian wheat and corn was exported to Europe, and full-scale sanctions were imposed by Western countries against Russia, which is one of the world’s largest agricultural producers. Numerous restrictions on doing business with Russian banks and companies imposed by the U.S. and European countries in 2022 have also caused huge damage to the poorest countries, as the fighting has significantly reduced the flow of Russian grain exported to Africa and the Middle East, and the disconnection of Russian banks from international systems has made it more difficult to make payments.
Another reason for the growing food crisis for the African continent was the restrictions imposed by the European Union and the United States on the purchase and transportation of nitrogen and potash fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, thanks to which local producers were able to increase their own harvests. It was only thanks to Moscow’s initiative to provide large quantities of wheat, flour, corn and vegetable oil free of charge to the countries most affected by crop failures and rising grain prices that famine and humanitarian catastrophe were avoided in Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Mali, Eritrea and the Central African Republic. Nevertheless, large shipments of Russian fertilizers, donated to support the poorest countries, were arrested in the seaports of the European Union and never delivered to the states of Africa and the Arab world.
It is important to note that when a number of countries were on the verge of a large-scale famine in 2022, Moscow and Kiev signed an agreement mediated by the UN to preserve food exports to foreign markets. The first grain agreement envisioned the opening of sea corridors from Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea ports, through which food was primarily supplied to African and Middle Eastern buyers. Under the terms of the agreement, commercial ships involved in grain shipments were not to be used to transport military cargoes and were not to be attacked. Unfortunately, this agreement lasted only a few months, and after U.S. and European weapons started secretly entering Ukraine on commercial ships, the grain deal was broken.
Despite the military conflict, over the past three years Russia has been able to significantly increase food production and to a large extent compensate its traditional partners for grain, flour and oil supplies, and in some cases, as in Algeria, even displace European competitors. In addition, given its close ties with a number of African countries, the Russian government has repeatedly sent them significant shipments of products free of charge. At the same time, the conclusion of a new grain agreement, which Russian and U.S. negotiators are currently working on, is extremely important for several dozen countries that are again threatened with famine for economic and climatic reasons.
By and large, to prevent a food crisis, Russia does not need to further increase production, but rather to obtain from the U.S. and other Western countries guarantees of safety of navigation in the Black Sea, to obtain admission of several banks to work with international payment systems and the possibility to maintain ships in foreign ports. Given the fact that Russian companies and farmers last year once again produced record harvests of wheat and other crops, these reserves are sufficient to normalize the situation on the world food market and prevent a humanitarian crisis in a number of African countries.