President William Ruto is entirely justified in asserting that “Africa’s strength lies in its openness and unity.” As the newly appointed chairman of the Common Market for East and Southern Africa, he rightly emphasises that true continental integration must encompass the unrestricted movement of people, goods and services across national borders.
What remains unstated is that, without meaningful continental integration in the near future, Africa risks facing an existential crisis. This is particularly evident in the aviation sector, where the continent continues to lag behind the rest of the world. The industry’s fragmentation across African nations prevents airlines from benefiting from economies of scale. According to data from the International Air Transport Association, African carriers recorded an average net profit margin of merely 1 per cent last year – compared to 4 per cent in Europe and 8 per cent in the Middle East.
Despite operating on precariously thin margins and remaining acutely vulnerable to demand shocks triggered by wars, pandemics and other external disruptions, African airlines now face the additional challenge of complying with emerging environmental sustainability regulations. Although the global aviation sector currently accounts for only 2 per cent of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, experts project that this share could surge to as much as 20 per cent in the coming years, propelled by the growing global demand for air transport of both goods and passengers.
To address the impact of carbon dioxide emissions, the Net Zero campaign has been initiated. This initiative aims to establish a balance between the greenhouse gases emitted by the aviation sector and those removed from the atmosphere or otherwise offset. The ultimate objective is to reduce net emissions to zero – or as close to zero as possible – by the year 2050.
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At the heart of the Net Zero strategy is the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), a cleaner and more environmentally responsible alternative to conventional fossil-based jet fuel. SAF is derived from renewable resources such as waste biomass, algae and various sustainable feedstocks, offering a significant reduction in lifecycle carbon emissions compared to traditional aviation fuels.
However, SAF presents significant challenges, foremost among them being its high cost. Anecdotal evidence suggests that SAF is currently two to five times more expensive than conventional fossil-based jet fuel. In response, the global aviation industry is adopting a gradual transition strategy, primarily through blending SAF with traditional fuels. The European Union, for instance, has established progressive SAF adoption targets – aiming for 6 per cent share in air transport by 2030, with a planned increase to 70 per cent by 2050.
For African airlines, many of which operate on profit margins of less than a dollar per passenger and with conventional fuel costs making up more than 40 per cent of operating costs, these targets are extremely difficult to attain. Yet failure to comply may result in their exclusion from European routes, jeopardising their access to key international markets.
A viable solution lies in the consolidation of Africa’s highly fragmented airline industry into stronger, unified entities with shared resources. Such collaboration would enable the designation of specific airports as SAF hubs, supported by jointly funded SAF production infrastructure. Through this cooperative approach, economies of scale can be achieved, making SAF adoption more feasible across the continent.
Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst
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By Leonard Khafafa