The late Raila Amolo Odinga was an imposing figure in Kenyan politics, dominating the landscape with a presence that few could rival. Like a towering tree whose vast canopy cast all others into shadow, his influence was expansive and enduring. In the wake of his passing, space has opened up for lesser political figures to assert themselves. Yet, it remains evident that few – if any – are likely to attain the magnitude of stature or legacy that he embodied.
Baba, as Raila was affectionately known, departed without formally designating a political successor. For the first time since independence, the Luo nation now faces an unprecedented leadership vacuum. Beneath the outward expressions of unity – reflected in the carefully measured tributes delivered at Baba’s funeral – subtle power plays have begun to emerge. From these undercurrents, four distinct factions can be discerned, each positioning itself as a potential custodian of his political legacy.
The first faction comprises the loyalists – individuals whose allegiance to Baba was unwavering and unquestioned. They stood with him through periods of political marginalisation and ascended alongside him when power was eventually attained. Their long-standing fealty, forged in the crucible of adversity, now manifests as a perceived entitlement, justified in their view by the sacrifices they made and the political scars they bear in Baba’s name.
In the second faction are opportunists – individuals who have astutely identified a leadership vacuum and strategically positioned themselves as the embodiment of the Kenyan people’s hopes and aspirations. Perceptive in reading the national mood, they have been swift to exploit the yearning for change, particularly among the country’s restive youth. They have projected themselves as the vanguard of transformation – purporting, in particular, to represent and lead the Luo nation.
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The third faction consists of individuals currently benefiting from the privileges of power under the Broad-Based Government – a political alliance forged between Raila and President William Ruto, which effectively integrated the ODM party into the Kenya Kwanza administration. This group may seek to assume control of ODM’s leadership as a strategy to prolong their influence within the government. Their ambitions could be tacitly supported by Dr Ruto, whose prospects for securing a second term in the 2027 presidential election may hinge on continued ODM backing without which his re-election campaign could face significant setbacks.
In the fourth faction are the political orphans – individuals whose entry and rise within national politics are wholly attributable to Baba’s patronage. Absent his influence, it is unlikely they would have attained their current positions of power. Whether they have internalised and can project the force of his political persona remains uncertain. Their capacity to endure in the post-Raila landscape will depend on this very question. Their conduct and positioning within the succession dynamics will ultimately determine whether they consolidate relevance or recede into political obscurity.
Mama Ida Odinga may be the embodiment of a rare convergence of all four factions – a ‘black swan’ figure within Kenya’s political landscape. Having stood steadfastly beside Baba through both struggle and ascension, she commands respect, not only as a stalwart of the Opposition but also as a conciliatory voice. As the esteemed matriarch of ODM, she emerges as a potential linchpin for unity in the party’s uncertain post-Raila future.
Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst
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By Leonard Khafafa