The widening war between Iran and the alliance of the United States and Israel is rapidly becoming one of the most dangerous geopolitical crises in decades, and its consequences are already being felt thousands of kilometres away in Kenya.
At the centre of the concern is the safety of nearly half a million Kenyans living and working across the Middle East. Government estimates indicate that between 400,000 and 500,000
Many Kenyans are based in Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Most work in construction, hospitality and domestic service, sending home billions of shillings in remittances that support families and the broader economy.
The latest detailed breakdown available comes from government reports presented to Parliament in 2024 by Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi.
The estimates showed that about 310,000 Kenyans were living in Saudi Arabia, 66,000 in Qatar, 23,000 in the United Arab Emirates, 8,000 in Bahrain, roughly 5,300 in Oman and 3,500 in Kuwait.
Smaller numbers were also recorded in countries closest to the war or at war, with around 200 Kenyans in Iran and about 150 in Iraq. Officials cautioned that the figures are estimates because many migrants do not register with Kenyan embassies.
The regional escalation following the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has turned several of these economic hubs into potential flashpoints. Reports of Iranian retaliatory strikes damaging infrastructure in Dubai and targeting American military installations in Bahrain have heightened fears among Kenyan workers across the Gulf.
Earlier this week, authroties reported that four people were injured when drones hit near Dubai International Airport. The four were an Indian national, a Bangladeshi and two Ghanaians.
For many Kenyans on the ground, the risks go beyond the immediate threat of missile or drone attacks. Airspace closures and heightened security could lead to flight cancellations, leaving workers stranded or unable to return home.
Businesses in tourism, construction and hospitality may slow down if the crisis deepens, threatening jobs that thousands of Kenyan migrants depend on. In countries hosting major foreign military bases, such as Bahrain and Qatar, there is concern about further retaliatory strikes if the conflict widens.
In response, Kenya’s State Department for Diaspora Affairs has activated a 24-hour emergency hotline and urged nationals in the region to register with embassies and avoid high-risk areas. While the government has not yet announced a mass evacuation, disruptions are already being felt. The national carrier Kenya Airways has suspended flights to Dubai and Sharjah as airspace restrictions and security concerns intensify, leaving many families in Kenya anxiously waiting for updates from loved ones abroad.