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Two weeks ago, I wrote on this page how the president of the South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, had chosen a rather treacherous and slippery route in suspending cooperation with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) that sits in Mogadishu.
Laftagareen went ahead and banned FGS officers in South West State from travelling to Mogadishu or having contact with their bosses.
I went further to draw a parallel with our own counties of Mombasa or Kisumu, calling off the cordial relations that exist with the national government in Nairobi and banning national government officers within their jurisdiction from travelling to Nairobi or having contact with their bosses in the capital city.
I warned that the South West State president had embarked on a dangerous trajectory, thus escalating an already fragile relationship. It also signaled deepening divisions within the country’s federal system.
Laftagareen seemed to be borrowing a leaf from two other federal member states, namely Jubaland and Puntland, who turned rebellious against Mogadishu since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected in 2022.
Turns out that Mogadishu was not going to let South West State join the two rebel states.
The fight for South West State and eventual ouster of Laftagareen was evident as early as February this year when he publicly signaled rising tensions, warning of instability and accusing unnamed actors of interference. This was an indication of a deepening but still manageable political crisis.
The state, however, tied itself in a bind when it rejected the move by the federal government to push through constitutional amendments aimed at transitioning to a one-person-one-vote system.
Laftagareen and South West leadership rejected the changes, arguing they undermine regional autonomy.
Come March 17, 2026, relations between Baidoa and Mogadishu had broken beyond repair, forcing the South West State to sever ties with the federal government, accusing it of interference and attempts to remove the regional leadership.
The crisis spread rapidly, engulfing the security sector with rival directives issued to military and police commanders, leading to clashes in Baidoa and the outskirts.
With the state descending into lawlessness, it was time for President Mohamud to act by exploring alternative leadership to stem the fighting in Baidoa.
By Monday this week, it was obvious that Laftagareen was on his way out, and it did not come as a surprise when he used his social media platform to announce his resignation. He was swiftly evacuated to Nairobi, where he is cooling his heels.
The resignation capped a dramatic fallout with President Mohamud, a close ally since his return to office in 2022.
Their relationship, once critical to political stability in South West State, unraveled over disputes on constitutional reforms, electoral control, and political authority, setting off a chain of events that culminated in armed clashes and institutional collapse.
The capture of the South West State capital effectively ended his grip on power, with federal forces securing key installations across the city.
His departure saw a high-level delegation from the Federal Government of Somalia arrive in Baidoa to oversee the political transition in the Southwest State. The delegation included the ministers of interior and religious affairs as well as the speaker of the lower house, Sheikh Aden Madobe.
Ahead of their Baidoa trip, federal stakeholders held discussions on the structure of the interim administration, with sources indicating that Laftagareen’s finance minister and former deputy speaker were under consideration in a caretaker role.
The federal government ultimately designated Somalia’s second deputy prime minister, Jibriil Adirashiid Haji Abdi, to head the transitional process and oversee the administration in Southwest State.
Laftagareen’s ouster came after his re-election for another five-year term in a vote rejected by the federal government.
Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre had on Monday decreed that the federal government would not accept indirect elections. This was just hours after the Somali National Army took control of Baidoa following fighting with the Southwest regional administration forces.
With Laftagareen out of power in Baidoa and Mogadishu fully in charge in South West State, other rebel states like Puntland and Jubaland must be on their tenterhooks.
President Mohamud must also be keeping his ears to the ground to find out whether the two states, together with the opposition leaders under the banner of Somalia Future Council (SFC), will capitalise on the departure of Laftagareen.
The Council had set this month as the period in which they would set up a parallel electoral process after Parliament amended the Provisional Constitution to alter the presidential and parliamentary period from four to five years.
The amendments postponed parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for next month to next year.
Will the opposition through SFC muddy the waters by setting up a parallel process to checkmate President Mohamud, scuppering their move to force an election?
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Two weeks ago, I wrote on this page how the president of the South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, had chosen a rather treacherous and slippery route in suspending cooperation with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) that sits in Mogadishu.
Laftagareen went ahead and banned FGS officers in South West State from travelling to Mogadishu or having contact with their bosses.
I went further to draw a parallel with our own counties of Mombasa or Kisumu, calling off the cordial relations that exist with the national government in Nairobi and banning national government officers within their jurisdiction from travelling to Nairobi or having contact with their bosses in the capital city.
I warned that the South West State president had embarked on a dangerous trajectory, thus escalating an already fragile relationship. It also signaled deepening divisions within the country’s federal system.
Laftagareen seemed to be borrowing a leaf from two other federal member states, namely Jubaland and Puntland, who turned rebellious against Mogadishu since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected in 2022.
Turns out that Mogadishu was not going to let South West State join the two rebel states.
The fight for South West State and eventual ouster of Laftagareen was evident as early as February this year when he publicly signaled rising tensions, warning of instability and accusing unnamed actors of interference. This was an indication of a deepening but still manageable political crisis.
The state, however, tied itself in a bind when it rejected the move by the federal government to push through constitutional amendments aimed at transitioning to a one-person-one-vote system.
Laftagareen and South West leadership rejected the changes, arguing they undermine regional autonomy.
Come March 17, 2026, relations between Baidoa and Mogadishu had broken beyond repair, forcing the South West State to sever ties with the federal government, accusing it of interference and attempts to remove the regional leadership.
The crisis spread rapidly, engulfing the security sector with rival directives issued to military and police commanders, leading to clashes in Baidoa and the outskirts.
With the state descending into lawlessness, it was time for President Mohamud to act by exploring alternative leadership to stem the fighting in Baidoa.
By Monday this week, it was obvious that Laftagareen was on his way out, and it did not come as a surprise when he used his social media platform to announce his resignation. He was swiftly evacuated to Nairobi, where he is cooling his heels.
The resignation capped a dramatic fallout with President Mohamud, a close ally since his return to office in 2022.
Their relationship, once critical to political stability in South West State, unraveled over disputes on constitutional reforms, electoral control, and political authority, setting off a chain of events that culminated in armed clashes and institutional collapse.
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The capture of the South West State capital effectively ended his grip on power, with federal forces securing key installations across the city.
His departure saw a high-level delegation from the Federal Government of Somalia arrive in Baidoa to oversee the political transition in the Southwest State. The delegation included the ministers of interior and religious affairs as well as the speaker of the lower house, Sheikh Aden Madobe.
Ahead of their Baidoa trip, federal stakeholders held discussions on the structure of the interim administration, with sources indicating that Laftagareen’s finance minister and former deputy speaker were under consideration in a caretaker role.
The federal government ultimately designated Somalia’s second deputy prime minister, Jibriil Adirashiid Haji Abdi, to head the transitional process and oversee the administration in Southwest State.
Laftagareen’s ouster came after his re-election for another five-year term in a vote rejected by the federal government.
Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre had on Monday decreed that the federal government would not accept indirect elections. This was just hours after the Somali National Army took control of Baidoa following fighting with the Southwest regional administration forces.
With Laftagareen out of power in Baidoa and Mogadishu fully in charge in South West State, other rebel states like Puntland and Jubaland must be on their tenterhooks.
President Mohamud must also be keeping his ears to the ground to find out whether the two states, together with the opposition leaders under the banner of Somalia Future Council (SFC), will capitalise on the departure of Laftagareen.
The Council had set this month as the period in which they would set up a parallel electoral process after Parliament amended the Provisional Constitution to alter the presidential and parliamentary period from four to five years.
The amendments postponed parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for next month to next year.
Will the opposition through SFC muddy the waters by setting up a parallel process to checkmate President Mohamud, scuppering their move to force an election?
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By David Okwembah