The positive projection of the country’s economic prospects ahead of the General Election set for August 10 next year is intriguing, coming from a credible organisation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth unlike in previous election cycles.
An interesting observation is that the economy will be more resilient, with commodity price shocks and currency instability eased. The global lender also expects lower inflation.
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook paints a modest economic acceleration. This confidence is quite unexpected. The economy will not experience the usual pre-election slowdown. It is projected to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2027, from 4.5 per cent this year. This is more promising than during the 2022 elections. The average annual consumer price inflation is expected to drop from six to five per cent next year.
The country’s current account deficit is expected to shrink from 5.4 per cent to 4.1 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP), easing external financing pressures.
Part of the IMF’s optimism is based on global oil prices stabilising, boosting real household incomes. The Central Bank’s focus is to keep the shilling stable and prices predictable. Election years fuel business hesitation. Unlike the IMF, the World Bank is slightly more cautious, forecasting a 4.4 per cent growth. The public debt is at a staggering 72.9 per cent of GDP.
Election campaign spending, government expenditure and uncertainty among investors are likely to influence economic activity. The continuing geopolitical tensions could also trigger another energy price shock, increasing transport, electricity and production costs. An El Niño risk and the Ebola threat are also likely to exert pressure.
An election is an opportunity to assess whether leaders have fulfilled the promises made in party manifestos and individual campaigns. The voters should be more vigilant to avoid being taken for a ride.
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